Possible scenario
Rolling Disruptions Continue
32% Chance
The government avoids a major concession, while unions and student groups keep pressure on Lecornu through rotating strikes and school blockades. Violence remains sporadic rather than systemic, creating modest but persistent pressure on domestic services, retail, and tourism sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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