Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
38% Chance
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and the Education Ministry move quickly to reduce tensions by offering talks on the cost-of-living freeze and student disciplinary cases. Union leaders claim a partial victory, and most high schools reopen within days, limiting the economic impact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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