Possible scenario
Crackdown Escalates Politically
20% Chance
The government doubles down on policing, and opposition parties accuse Lecornu of mishandling the student unrest. The situation becomes a test of government authority, increasing short-term political risk but still falling short of a national crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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