Possible scenario
Soft Landing Persists
45% Chance
The Beige Book-style signal of flat hiring but only limited moderate growth points to cooling rather than contraction. Jerome Powell and the FOMC keep emphasizing data dependence, with markets modestly increasing odds of an insurance cut if payrolls continue to soften.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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