Possible scenario
Inflation Keeps Fed Cautious
20% Chance
Modest growth does not translate into immediate disinflation because services prices and tariff-related goods costs remain sticky. The FOMC leans against premature easing, and rates markets give back some dovish pricing.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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