Possible scenario
Oversight Probe Advances
38% Chance
The most likely path is formal oversight rather than an immediate constitutional clash. The DHS inspector general, GAO, and congressional Democrats focus on whether border-security appropriations and officer memorial funds were unlawfully repurposed for political messaging.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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