Possible scenario
Congress Restricts Funding
20% Chance
Congress could fold the dispute into a continuing resolution or DHS appropriations bill. The most realistic legislative response is a narrow rider requiring certifications, reimbursements, or limits on publicity spending rather than a broader rollback of border funding.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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