Possible scenario
Warning Stays Rhetorical
35% Chance
Iranian state media continues to threaten disruption of regional flights, but Tehran avoids issuing a formal airspace closure or missile warning. Regional carriers keep contingency routings while governments use diplomatic channels to prevent an accidental escalation.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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