Possible scenario
Limited Airspace Disruption
30% Chance
Iran follows its warning with limited aviation restrictions, likely through NOTAMs, military-exercise zones, or selective denial of corridors. The disruption raises airline costs and geopolitical risk premia but stops short of a full regional aviation shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.3%
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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