Possible scenario
Limited Pickaxe Strike
30% Chance
Washington or Israel proceeds with a limited strike package against Pickaxe Mountain after concluding that Iran will not accept a negotiated inspection or freeze. The most likely version is a contained attack on entrances, power, air-defense nodes, or support facilities rather than a broader campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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