Possible scenario
Claim Stays Tactical
38% Chance
Iran's state-media claim is treated mainly as signaling for domestic audiences and negotiating leverage, not as proof that a strike is imminent. Washington avoids confirming the alleged request, while Qatar continues trying to keep the nuclear roadmap alive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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