Possible scenario
Contained War Brutalization
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Russia intensifies strikes on Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure, and prisoners while avoiding direct confrontation with NATO. Kyiv uses Zelenskyy's claim to document command responsibility and press allies for air defenses before winter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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