Possible scenario
Protests Broaden Nationally
27% Chance
The Austin shooting becomes a catalyst for broader anti-ICE demonstrations, especially after earlier 2026 enforcement raids and the prior fatal Texas shooting. Most actions remain peaceful, but sporadic clashes with police increase political risk and generate modest risk-off sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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