Possible scenario
Enforcement Hardens
22% Chance
Federal and Texas officials respond by expanding security around ICE operations rather than pausing raids. This path is plausible because the prior timeline shows escalating enforcement, National Guard involvement, and repeated Texas flashpoints.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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