Possible scenario
Sanctions Enforcement Escalates
23% Chance
The US and European partners move from diplomatic pressure to tougher enforcement against Iranian oil, shipping, banks, and nuclear procurement channels. Russia and China object, limiting multilateral unity, but private-sector compliance risk rises quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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