Possible scenario
Inspection Deal Revives
27% Chance
Iran's offer of inspector access gives diplomats room to pause escalation if Tehran allows limited verification at disputed sites. The US still demands penalties, but Oman, Qatar, and European officials push for a sequencing formula linking inspections to partial sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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