Possible scenario
Lower Courts Narrow
27% Chance
Lower courts interpret the Supreme Court action as procedural rather than a broad merits ruling. Judges allow limited citizenship verification but impose notice, audit, and timing requirements that slow mass use before the 2026 elections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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