Possible scenario
Wider Cross-Border Escalation
20% Chance
The Aden palace strike becomes part of a broader Houthi campaign against Saudi military, aviation, and energy targets. Saudi Arabia expands strikes across Houthi-held Yemen, raising the perceived risk to oil infrastructure and regional transport.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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