Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
30% Chance
The attack raises pressure on Oman, the UN, and regional intermediaries to prevent a broader Saudi-Houthi exchange. Riyadh could accept a short humanitarian or security pause if the Houthis halt attacks on Saudi territory and Aden.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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