Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Retaliation
40% Chance
Riyadh responds with limited airstrikes against Houthi launch sites and command nodes while avoiding a full ground escalation. The Houthis claim the Aden attack as retaliation for Saudi strikes, but both sides keep channels to mediators open.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
- RTX+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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