Possible scenario
Republicans Retain Senate
32% Chance
Republicans outperform the VoteHub baseline and keep control, helped by late consolidation among GOP voters and narrow wins by incumbents in Maine and North Carolina. This outcome would be viewed as a modest continuation of the 2024 Senate alignment and a check on Democratic committee control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance +0.6%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.