Possible scenario
Democrats Narrowly Control
47% Chance
Democrats convert their polling edge into a narrow Senate majority, most likely by defending Georgia and flipping a small number of Republican-held seats. The 59.6% VoteHub probability suggests this remains the base case, though the decline from the Oct. 7 peak shows the margin is fragile.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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