Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Expands
13% Chance
Democrats outperform their already-favorable VoteHub odds and win more than the minimum needed for Senate control. This would require the party to hold vulnerable Democratic seats while also defeating at least one additional Republican incumbent beyond Maine and North Carolina.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Finance -0.9%
- Healthcare -0.8%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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