Possible scenario
Licenses Proceed Quickly
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Trump administration follows through after the walkback, issuing export and production licenses that let Ukraine, NATO buyers, and U.S. contractors move ahead. This would not immediately solve Kyiv's interceptor shortage, but it would improve confidence that Patriot replenishment and sustainment will continue.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- RTX+2.1%
- +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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