Possible scenario
Enforcement Gap Persists
18% Chance
If the ruling is not stayed promptly, federal prosecutors temporarily lose a direct criminal tool against alleged noncitizen voting. Republican-led states and county election officials respond by leaning on state statutes, registration audits, and referrals tied to the September 2026 Social Security verification decision.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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