Possible scenario
Network Becomes Routine
40% Chance
The administration treats the 25,000 removals as proof that third-country deportations can operate at scale despite litigation. Additional agreements with governments in Central America, Africa, and the Balkans allow the Department of Homeland Security to keep flights moving while avoiding direct repatriation bottlenecks.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- GEO+4.4%
- CXW+3.6%
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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