Possible scenario
Limited Houthi Attack
45% Chance
The blasts are most likely a limited Houthi coercive action or warning shot rather than a full closure of the strait. The group may be testing its September pledge to spare EU and US ships while signaling it still controls escalation at Bab el Mandeb.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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