Possible scenario
Weights Release Succeeds
35% Chance
StepFun releases Step 5 weights on Oct. 15 as promised, and independent users broadly confirm the 44 benchmark score and materially lower serving costs. The result strengthens China’s open-weight AI ecosystem and intensifies pricing pressure on proprietary frontier-model providers.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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