Possible scenario
Release Underwhelms
20% Chance
The Oct. 15 weights release happens, but broader testing shows the preview benchmark overstated real-world performance or omitted important deployment costs. StepFun still gains attention, but Kimi K3 and larger proprietary models retain developer confidence.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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