Possible scenario
Oversight Without Removal
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Tillis’s regret becomes fuel for renewed oversight, but not an immediate catalyst for Pete Hegseth’s removal. Senate Democrats and a few institutional Republicans press for records on the 2025 allegations and the Atlantic text disclosures while GOP leadership avoids a direct break with the White House.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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