Possible scenario
Hegseth Exit Fight
24% Chance
Tillis’s public reversal could contribute to a broader loss of confidence in Hegseth if paired with new reporting or damaging testimony. This scenario requires more than regret alone: another disclosure, a failed hearing performance, or a direct White House calculation that the defense secretary has become a liability.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- LMT-0.2%
- BAH-0.1%
- CACI-0.1%
- GD-0.1%
- LDOS-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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