Possible scenario
GOP Accountability Split
20% Chance
The story becomes less about Hegseth’s job security and more about Republican willingness to challenge Trump nominees. Tillis, already retired after breaking with Trump, becomes a symbol in arguments over Senate independence and confirmation standards.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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