Possible scenario
Sobriety Becomes Baseline
40% Chance
The decline proves durable as younger consumers, GLP-1 users, and health-conscious households keep reducing beer, wine, and spirits intake. Alcohol becomes a structurally lower-growth category rather than a temporary post-pandemic adjustment.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.1%
- Healthcare +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- TAP.B-2.1%
- BF.A-1.8%
- -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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