Possible scenario
Exemption Request Rejected
30% Chance
The US denies Hungary's request and signals that the 100% tariff will apply unless Russian crude purchases stop. This is plausible because Hungary has repeatedly blocked EU support for Ukraine and has become a high-profile test case for the new law.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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