Possible scenario
Washington Blocks Deal
25% Chance
Congressional sanctions hawks and Ukraine supporters could slow or block the arrangement, especially if the deal is seen as rewarding Minsk for helping Russia's war effort. In this path, Canadian and U.S. potash producers regain pricing support as Belarus supply remains constrained.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- IPI+2.9%
- NTR+2.5%
- MOS+1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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