Possible scenario
Limited Waiver Deal
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a narrow U.S. sanctions carve-out allowing controlled imports or swaps of Belarusian potash while keeping most Belarus sanctions intact. Trump can claim lower fertilizer costs for U.S. farmers without fully normalizing relations with Alexander Lukashenko's government.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- IPI-5.4%
- NTR-4.6%
- MOS-3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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