Possible scenario
Canada Trade Fight
20% Chance
Canada could treat the Belarus initiative as an attempt to weaken its potash exporters while maintaining a punitive 35% tariff backdrop. The dispute would likely stay concentrated in fertilizer and agriculture trade, rather than becoming a full cross-border market shock.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- MOS+1.1%
- IPI+0.9%
- NTR+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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