Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Expands
28% Chance
Riyadh responds with broader strikes on Houthi missile depots, drone workshops, and command sites inside Yemen. The Houthis answer with more launches toward Saudi cities, keeping the conflict elevated but still below a full Gulf-wide crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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