Possible scenario
Oil Infrastructure Targeted
20% Chance
The Houthis try to shift pressure from airports to Saudi energy infrastructure, reviving the market memory of attacks on Abqaiq and other Aramco facilities. Even limited damage would move oil more than airport attacks because Saudi spare capacity and export reliability are central to global crude pricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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