Possible scenario
Interceptions Contain Escalation
42% Chance
Saudi air defenses continue to defeat most incoming Houthi missiles and drones, keeping casualties and physical damage limited after the prior Riyadh airport attack. Riyadh maintains heightened air-defense posture while avoiding a major expansion of the campaign inside Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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