Possible scenario
Managed Rhetorical Escalation
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Medvedev's warning remains part of Moscow's deterrence messaging rather than a signal of imminent action. NATO maintains elevated surveillance over Poland and the Baltic region, but neither side deliberately crosses a threshold that would force a broader response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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