Possible scenario
Diplomacy Resumes
18% Chance
The destruction of key nuclear sites and NATO messaging push Iran toward a limited diplomatic track to regain inspections access and reduce sanctions pressure. The U.S. and European governments press for verification before any sanctions relief, keeping negotiations narrow but viable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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