Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
42% Chance
Iran avoids a direct military response after the reported destruction of nuclear sites, calculating that further escalation would invite additional U.S. strikes. The Rutte comment reinforces the perception that Washington remains the decisive military actor, helping Israel and Gulf states deter near-term Iranian breakout attempts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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