Possible scenario
Asymmetric Iranian Response
27% Chance
Iran avoids an overt attack on the U.S. homeland or Israel but uses regional proxies, cyber operations, and maritime pressure to impose costs. This is plausible because Tehran has historically preferred deniable retaliation when facing superior U.S. conventional power.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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