Possible scenario
Seoul Deepens Support
25% Chance
The live prisoners give Seoul stronger political justification to expand support for Kyiv. South Korea remains cautious about direct lethal aid, but the episode shifts domestic debate toward a firmer response to North Korean participation in Russia's war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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