Possible scenario
Fragile Partial Access
31% Chance
The reopening proves real but constrained, with Tehran retaining inspection powers and the ability to slow tanker movements. This keeps a residual geopolitical premium in oil and limits the relief rally in risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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