Possible scenario
Yard Buildout Advances
35% Chance
The most likely path is that the Pentagon's 40% stake becomes a template for direct industrial-base intervention, with Anduril moving ahead on a phased submarine-yard buildout. The Navy uses the investment to expand capacity outside the General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls duopoly, while keeping Anduril tied to government oversight.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Tickers
- GD+1.2%
- HII+1.0%
- LMT-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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