Possible scenario
Targeted EU Deterrence
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Brussels turns the deterrence concept into a targeted instrument rather than a sweeping China-wide ban. The European Commission, Council, and key member states use the tool mainly as leverage against coercive trade practices, rare-earth restrictions, and procurement discrimination.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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