Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
25% Chance
China and the EU use the threat of a single-market exclusion tool to reopen negotiations on export controls, customs treatment, and anti-coercion safeguards. The European Commission keeps the instrument alive but slows formal adoption to test Chinese concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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