Possible scenario
Fiscal Impasse Deepens
30% Chance
The French budget dispute becomes the immediate catalyst for further sovereign-spread widening. Investors price a higher probability of either another government collapse or a budget passed without durable political legitimacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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